The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. SHFE tin fluctuates to form a bottom, waiting for a breakthrough [SMM tin futures brief comment]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract as of June 30, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closed at 268,110 yuan/mt on June 30, down 0.60% (1,620 yuan) for the day, with the five-day gain narrowing to 2.43%. The price exhibited characteristics of being in the doldrums throughout the day, opening lower at 269,630 yuan/mt in the morning session and remaining under pressure, closing near the key level of 268,000 yuan in the afternoon session. The spot market weakened in tandem.

On the inventory front, LME tin inventory remained at a nearly two-year low, with a high ratio of cancelled warrants, suggesting that overseas unreported inventory had been largely depleted.

Swing in Fed policy expectations: The market's expectation for an interest rate cut in September rose to 68%, with the weakening US dollar providing support for metals. However, the US Department of Commerce's statement that "there is no need to extend the July 9 trade negotiation deadline" exacerbated uncertainty surrounding tariff policies.

Rising trade friction risks: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded firmly to US tariff negotiations, emphasizing "opposition to any deal that sacrifices China's interests," with the potential for geopolitical premiums to be injected into prices once again.

Lagging domestic stimulus policies: Despite the continuation of the auto trade-in policy, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales from January to May had slowed from 45% to 5%, indicating a diminishing marginal effect of policies.

The current market is characterized by a tug-of-war between "strong supply constraints and weak demand reality":

Above-market pressures: The accumulation of social inventory reflects sluggish spot cargo digestion, with downstream acceptance sharply declining above 270,000 yuan. Bottom support: Mine shortages have led to smelting production cuts, coupled with low LME inventory (a decrease in global delivery brands), providing strong support for SHFE tin within the 250,000-260,000 yuan range.